The intuition behind this mechanism is best illustrated by Wason’s (\citeyearwason_failure_1960) rule discovery task. When asked to discover a hidden rule governing number triples (e.g., 2-4-6), participants overwhelmingly proposed triples that fit their current hypothesis (e.g., testing 8-10-12 to confirm “increasing even numbers”) rather than triples that would defy it. Because the true rule was simply “increasing numbers,” these positive tests appeared to confirm people’s more restrictive hypotheses.
But that fundamentally is what a futures contract is. There’s an asset underneath. That sort of got abstracted into financial products, where the thing underneath is a stock, where you buy or sell a stock at a certain price on a certain date. I guess what they’re trying to say is, this is a second level of abstraction. There’s a similar financial product, except the financial product underneath has to be a bet. That’s just what the contract is, that’s what you’re saying. I recognize why they want to be distinct from gambling, but I can’t say that I think it is.
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